The Fed keeps brushing off concerns about another Trump presidency. Closed-door meetings from his first term show otherwise

If voted into office in the November US presidential election, former President Donald Trump said he promises to impose sweeping tariffs of at least 10% on all foreign imports, up to 60% for some Chinese products, and levies as high as 100% for countries that abandon the dollar as their reserve currency.

Federal Reserve officials won’t say how former President Donald Trump winning a second term could impact the economy. Actually, the Fed prides itself on avoiding even the suggestion that it is wading into politics. But transcripts of closed-door Fed meetings from Trump’s first term give some clues about top economists’ true feelings about Trump’s economic agenda. If voted into office in the November US presidential election, Trump has promised to impose sweeping tariffs of at least 10% on all foreign imports, up to 60% for some Chinese products, and levies as high as 100% for countries that abandon the dollar as their reserve currency. If enacted, those policies could have wide-reaching effects on the US economy as well as economies across the globe. To better understand what that could look like, US lawmakers have sought the input of the leader of the largest economy in the world: Fed Chair Jerome Powell. But when asked in congressional hearings, press conferences and in letters from lawmakers to weigh in on the issue of tariffs, Powell has stood his ground. As head of the US central bank, an independent and apolitical agency, he said he has an obligation not to comment on political agendas. “We also don’t comment on trade policy,” Powell said in response to a question from Sen. Jack Reed, a Democrat from Rhode Island, in testimony before the Senate Banking Committee in July, when asked about the effect of the tariffs that Trump has proposed.