The Daily Chase: Summer rate cut firmly on the table

Here are five things you need to know this morning.

Rate cut odds now at 50-50 chance for June: The Bank of Canada opted not to change its benchmark policy rate yesterday, but consensus is growing that the era of standing on the sidelines is coming to an end. On the swaps market, the odds of a cut in June currently sit at just over 50 per cent, rising to a virtual lock by July. After taking heat for allowing inflation to run up quickly in the first place — and then exacerbating shelter inflation with ensuing rate hikes — the Bank of Canada is clearly proceeding cautiously before embarking on to the downslope for fear of having to reverse course later. But more and more voices are emerging suggesting that’s there’s already more than enough justification to start easing rates. Jeremy Kronick, the director of the Centre on Financial and Monetary Policy at the C.D. Howe institute, told BNN Bloomberg’s The Street this morning that he’s among those who thinks it’s time. “There’s a lot of evidence that the economy is slowing,” he said. While the headline annual inflation number has now been below three per cent for two months in a row, short-term three-month measures are even weaker. Given the knowledge that monetary policy works with a lag, “it was time to cut,” he said, “but we’ll see what happens in June.”

Unifor seeks to unionize 2 B.C. Amazon facilities: Canada’s largest private sector union has filed two applications to represent workers at a pair of Amazon facilities in British Columbia. Unifor says it has filed to represent workers at a fulfilment centre in New Westminster and one in Delta, the culmination of a unionization drive that formally launched last year. Under B.C. law, if more than 55 per cent of workers sign union cards, certification is automatically granted and collective bargaining can begin. A vote to unionize can also be implemented if at least 45 per cent of workers sign up. It’s a major development in the world of labour relations, where unions in Canada and the U.S. have targeted Amazon in recent years. The company for its part says it looks forward to working with employees to “continue making Amazon a great place to work.”

Home ownership getting out of reach, poll finds: There’s a gloomy sentiment about housing affordability in Canada, if the results of a new poll out today can be believed. An online survey of 1526 Canadian adults commissioned by CIBC and conducted by Maru Public Opinion found that among those who don’t already own their home, more than three quarters say entry into the housing market feels out of reach, even as more than half of them say they want to buy. There’s pessimism among those who already own, too, as more than half of variable rate mortgage holders say they are cutting back on other expenses in order to keep the roof over their head. And a majority of those on fixed-rate loans say they are planning to do the same in order to pay for the higher rate they’re expecting when they renew.