The Daily Chase: Markets wait for Nvidia earnings

Here are five things you need to know this morning.

Nvidia in focus: The dizzying rise of Nvidia shares has been well documented, with the chipmaker riding the AI wave to a tripling of its market cap in the last year alone. While so far the company’s performance has lived up to the hype, the company is set to reveal its latest quarterly results after markets close on Wednesday and to say the numbers will be closely watched would be an understatement. Goldman Sachs analyst Scott Rubner called the company “the most important stock in the world right now” and despite wobbling of late on fears the company might not meet its impossibly high expectations, markets are still anticipating a big move in the shares regardless. For the record, analysts are expecting revenue for the quarter to more than triple to US$20 billion while earnings are forecast to rise by more than 400 per cent, which means the company could quadruple its profitability and somehow disappoint investors. Greg Taylor, chief investment officer with Purpose Investments told BNNBloomberg’s The Street this morning that while the potential is immense, there is a downside. “There is a risk that, much like the dotcom crisis where everybody was scrambling to grab broadband, once the supply is there and the demand does not met expectations you’ve got a bit of a stumble,” he said.

The minutiae of the Fed: They’re likely to not have the sex appeal of AI, but the minutes from the U.S. central bank’s January meeting will be worth a look today as investors scan for clues as to which way the Fed is leaning on the subject of rate cuts. The meeting itself, you’ll recall, was as predictable as expected. The bank’s policy makers elected to keep their benchmark policy interest rate right where it was for the fourth meeting in a row after hiking its rate to the highest level in 22 years. But the bank did tone down some language that implied it was ready to raise rates further to tame inflation if needed, opening the floodgates to speculation on the timing of a cut. Currently markets are expecting a rate cut in June at the earliest, but Wednesday’s minutes should give us a glimpse of how spirited the debate on the topic is internally at the Fed — and depending on who the outliers are, give us a hint at whose policy speeches we should be paying attention to in the coming weeks.

First Quantum finds a lifeline: Hard-hit Canadian mining giant First Quantum Minerals Ltd. posted quarterly results before markets opened on Wednesday and considering the forced closure of its Panama copper mine, the numbers were about what you’d expect. Cobre Panama made up about 40 per cent of the company’s revenues last year, so its sudden closure in recent months wiped out more than US$1.2 billion from its sales and swung the company to a 37 cent loss per share. That’s a reversal from the 22 cents per share profit last year, and twice as bad as the 16 cent loss analysts were expecting. The company is burning through funds at the moment, with cash flow from operations coming in at negative $185 million for the period versus $237 million on the positive side last year. But the news wasn’t all bad for the company on Wednesday. First Quantum has been trying to buy itself some time to stay on top of some major debt covenants due in the coming years and it may have found a lifeline from its second-largest shareholder. Jiangxi Copper Co. has agreed to pay $500 million for 50,000 metric tons of copper shipments per year from First Quantum’s Kansanshi mine in Zambia.