The Daily Chase: Budget Day in Canada, inflation comes in at 2.9%

Here are five things you need to know this morning.

Budget Day in Canada: The federal budget is being unveiled in Ottawa today. And while a slew of voter-targeting spending announcements have already dribbled out ahead of time, later this afternoon we’ll get a closer look at all the details. We know there will be a deficit, and the government has pledged to keep it below its previously telegraphed ceiling of $40 billion, but it will be fascinating to parse out just how, exactly, Ottawa plans to slowly trim its debt load while living up to the billions of dollars of new spending it has promised for things like housing. One intriguing option that’s rumoured to be in there according to a report in the Globe & Mail is a rudimentary wealth tax which — if it comes to pass — would mark a fairly significant new era in Canada’s tax regime. Stay with BNN Bloomberg all day and after the embargo lifts around 4 p.m.

Canadian inflation hits 2.9% but core is below that: Canada’s consumer price index ticked up to 2.9 per cent in March, in line with estimates but still a touch higher than the level clocked the month before. Statistics Canada reported Tuesday that the annual inflation rate rose mostly due to gasoline prices, which increased by 4.5 per cent in the year up to March. Shelter inflation came in at 6.5 per cent, flat from February’s pace but still more than twice the official inflation rate. The March numbers mean that Canada’s inflation rate has now been below three per cent for three months in a row for the first time since 2021. Better still, core inflation, which strips out volatile items like energy, came in at 2.8 per cent, down from three per cent in February. To Pedro Antunes, chief economist with the Conference Board of Canada, that’s the biggest takeaway from the numbers and definitely good news for anyone hoping for a rate cut. “The bank is going to take that burden off of households by lowering interest rates come June,” he told BNN Bloomberg’s The Street after the numbers came out. “I think we can be more assured now that we will see a decline in rates starting in the summer.” The currency market seems to agree with that assessment as the loonie lost about quarter of a cent after the data was released. All things being equal, rate cuts send a country’s currency lower since they reduce the potential return of assets denominated in that currency. The loonie losing ground is a message from currency investors that they think a cut is now more likely, and sure enough, trading on the swaps market currently implies about a 68 per cent chance of a rate cut in June. That’s 10 points higher than the odds were yesterday.

Lyft CEO speaks to BNN: We’ll have an exclusive interview today with David Risher, the chief executive officer of ride-hailing app Lyft. The interview comes at an interesting time for the company and the industry as the major players seem to have tipped over the inflection point into profitability. The company is due to release its latest earnings report at some point over the next few weeks, and regardless of what the numbers show, the company will want to avoid the misstep it took last go around, when its release erroneously reported it expects earnings margin to grow by an eye-watering 500 basis points — 10 times the 50-point reality. The shares soared and then plunged in the confusion, so the company will be looking for a smoother go of things this time around. We’re likely to hear more about the company’s plans for the Canadian market, too, so be sure to tune in.