The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2024

If there was one sign this week of Vice President Kamala Harris’ place atop the Democratic ticket having improved the party’s brand, it was the presence of so many Senate candidates taking the stage at its convention in Chicago.

If there was one sign this week of Vice President Kamala Harris’ place atop the Democratic ticket having improved the party’s brand, it was the presence of so many Senate candidates taking the stage at its convention in Chicago. Notably, three of the most vulnerable senators skipped the Democratic National Convention. But nominees in Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Maryland and Texas were on hand for at least part of the week, with many of them speaking the same night as Harris. While Harris has improved on President Joe Biden’s standing in many states — putting Nevada and Arizona back in play, for example — the basic shape of the crucial Senate races that will determine the majority is the same. Democrats were overperforming the top of the ticket when Biden was the nominee and they still are under Harris. But Democrats are facing an incredibly unfavorable map this year, defending seats in places that former President Donald Trump won by comfortable margins and presidential battlegrounds that he narrowly lost in 2020. Assuming Republicans pick up West Virginia, where Sen. Joe Manchin is retiring, the party just needs to win the White House or pick up one more Senate seat to secure the majority. And underneath the topline trend of Democratic overperformance (so far), there are emerging differences among some of these races that have resulted in shifts to this month’s ranking of the Senate seats most likely to flip, which is based on CNN’s reporting, as well as fundraising, polling and spending data. The top three states most likely to change hands — West Virginia, Montana and Ohio — aren’t budging. After those three, the next most likely are now open seats where Democrats are on defense: Michigan and Arizona. Seats without incumbents are almost always harder to defend, in part because the nominees don’t have as well-known brands to help buck any national headwinds. Those two seats slide above Nevada, where Sen. Jacky Rosen is running for a second term and which had previously been No. 4.