The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2024

Senate primaries are only just beginning, but the matchups in key races that will determine the balance of power in the chamber look relatively settled seven months before the November election.

Senate primaries are only just beginning, but the matchups in key races that will determine the balance of power in the chamber look relatively settled seven months before the November election. At the dawn of the second fundraising quarter, the general election is effectively here, and that’s bringing several changes to our list of the top 10 Senate seats most likely to flip. Rankings are based on CNN’s reporting, fundraising figures and historical data about how states and candidates have performed. Of these 10 seats, only Ohio and Texas have held primaries so far. Nominating contests between April and August will cement what the other races look like. The top three races on the list – West Virginia, Montana and Ohio – aren’t going anywhere. They’re still the most likely to flip because they’re Democratic-held seats in states that twice backed Donald Trump. In fact, West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin’s decision not to run for reelection has essentially handed the seat to Republicans, who need just one or two seats to flip the Senate, depending on who wins the White House this fall. The presidential race has also settled into a general election tempo. While we’re not done with this year’s presidential nominating contests, both Trump and President Joe Biden have already secured enough delegates to become their respective parties’ presumptive nominees. The changes in the latest Senate rankings come in the next tier of races, which are presidential battleground states that Biden narrowly won over Trump four years ago and that are likely to see a close race again this year. Wall Street Journal polling released Wednesday, for example, showed no clear leader in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump held a slight lead in Arizona. Republicans have a decent shot at flipping these Senate seats, but it’s nowhere near as strong as their chances of winning the first three states on the list.