Texas Republicans could be headed for a runoff in heated attorney general primary

The most hotly contested statewide primary in Texas on Tuesday centers on the future of state Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Republican who spearheaded a notorious failed legal challenge to the 2020 election results and, with a slew of corruption allegations hanging over his campaign, is now facing the prospect of being pushed into a runoff for the GOP nomination.

Recent polling of the race has cast doubt over whether Paxton can win the contest outright, and a chance at a third term in November, in the first primary round. Though he leads the pack, with 47% according to a February survey from the University of Texas at Austin and the Texas Politics Project, Paxton needs a majority on Election Day to avoid being drawn into a one-on-one contest with the runner-up in a heavyweight field of potential runners-up that includes state Land Commissioner George P. Bush, former state Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman and US Rep. Louie Gohmert.

The campaign has mostly evolved along two tracks: Bush, Guzman and the late-entering Gohmert have sought to chip away at Paxton over his ethics scandals, which include a remarkable episode in 2020 when top lieutenants in his own office leveled allegations of bribery, abuse of office and "other potential criminal offenses" to law enforcement. Paxton has not been charged and has sought to cast the accusations as sour grapes. But his critics and opponents have warned that a potential indictment in the coming months, along with other lingering legal issues, could endanger Republican hopes of another statewide election sweep. Still, as election day nears, and early voting continues, the challengers have ratcheted up attacks on one another, as they jockey for second place.