South Asia’s climate migration is a ticking bomb Premium
The Hindu
Because of disasters ranging from floods to desertification, South Asia would have an estimated 50 million climate refugees by 2050
June 5 marked the 50th anniversary of World Environment Day which was started by the United Nations in June 1972 at the Stockholm Conference on the Human Environment. Even after 50 years, 40% of the world’s population — 3.5 billion people — live in areas that are particularly susceptible to the effects of climate change, including water scarcity, drought, heat stress, sea level rise, and extreme events such as floods and tropical cyclones. The World Development Report on Migrants, Refugees, and Societies states, “As the world struggles to cope with global economic imbalances, diverging demographic trends, and climate change, migration will become a necessity in the decades to come for countries at all levels of income”.
South Asia houses the world’s most impacted climate displacement hotspots, including the Hindu Kush-Himalaya region, coastal areas, island nations, and deltaic and semi-arid regions. Land regions which are prone to high environmental vulnerability include Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka affected by sea level rise and coastal floods. While Bhutan, Afghanistan and Nepal are affected by glacial melt and temperature rise, small island nations such as the Maldives face the threat of submersion.
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The situation is exacerbated by high population density, poverty, and inadequate infrastructure. By 2050, nearly 216 million South Asians could be displaced due to climatic reasons. In 2020, cyclone Amphan alone displaced five million people across South Asia. In 2015, Nepal’s Gorkha earthquake displaced 2.6 million people, and left over 6,00,000 homeless. Over 7.9 million people were displaced by the floods in Pakistan, in 2022.
By 2050, globally there could be 1.2 billion climate refugees. In South Asia, there have been over nine million internal displacements in 2020, making it the region having the highest number of new displacements due to climate change. Climate displacement results in job losses, food insecurity, and an overall overcrowding of resources, creating further migration and incurring other social and economic costs.
Poor economic capabilities reduce the adaptive capacity of communities to climate change events and promote migration. Internally displaced people migrate for better livelihood opportunities, and safety. The economic costs associated with climate migration in South Asia include loss of skilled labour, and reduced productivity in agriculture, fisheries, and forestry. Displacement can also lead to social costs such as the breakdown of social networks and communities, mental health issues, social unrest, and conflict.
Changes in agricultural patterns and water availability force people to migrate to urban areas. Such rural-urban migration overburdens cities that already operate at capacity. Climate migration creates a multiplier effect on pre-existing threats such as overcrowding, and conflicts over resources sharing. The correlation between climate vulnerability and violence is notable. In 2020, 95% of conflict-related displacements were reported in climate vulnerable countries.