Sellers re-entering the housing market, buyers continue to be constrained: economist
BNN Bloomberg
Canada’s major housing markets are starting to recover, but one economist says a more pronounced recovery cannot be sustained until interest rates move significantly lower.
Robert Hogue, assistant chief economist at RBC, said in a report Tuesday that as sellers have begun re-entering Canada’s major housing markets this spring, affordability conditions are still weighing on buyers. He said figures from local real estate boards in April highlight sharp increases in new listings and inventory across Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal.
“This could reflect a confluence of sellers that include many who took a pass at the fall market (when demand and prices dipped) in the hope of better outcomes this spring. Some of the sellers could be in distress in the face of high interest rates,” the report said.
Hogue also pointed to lower home resale figures in March and April in most major markets as buyers are not moving to capitalize on increases in supply.
Manufacturing sales fell 2.1 per cent to $69.9 billion in March as sales of petroleum and coal products and motor vehicles fell, Statistics Canada said Wednesday. Olivia Cross, North America economist at Capital Economics, said the result was not as bad as the early estimate that pointed to a drop of 2.8 per cent, but it still means sales fell 0.9 per cent over the first quarter. "The weakness of manufacturing sales in March suggests that the economy lost momentum heading into the second quarter, matching the message from the earlier preliminary estimates for retail sales and GDP," Cross said in a note. Last month, Statistics Canada released a pair of preliminary estimates for real gross domestic product and retail sales for March that both suggested the data points were essentially unchanged for the month. Driving the manufacturing sales numbers for March was an 8.0 per cent drop in sales of petroleum and coal products to $8.0 billion as volumes fell 6.1 per cent. Sales of motor vehicles fell 7.9 per cent to $4.6 billion in March as sales of motor vehicle parts lost 2.8 per cent. Statistics Canada says retoolings at several major auto assembly plants in Ontario continued to impact auto manufacturing and contributed to the lower sales for the month. Meanwhile, sales of machinery rose 2.9 per cent to $4.5 billion in March. The increase came as sales in all seven machinery industry groups climbed higher, led by commercial and service industry machinery which gained 41.6 per cent. Overall manufacturing sales in constant dollars fell 2.0 per cent in March. Total inventories for the month were largely unchanged at $121.0 billion in March, while unfilled orders fell 0.8 per cent to $104.8 billion. This report by The Canadian Press was first published May 15, 2024.