Russia to celebrate Victory Day without a victory in Ukraine

In the shadow of the Kremlin, in the middle of a war, Russia's getting ready for a parade — a Victory Day celebration, but without a victory in Ukraine to celebrate.

Photos and video show thousands of soldiers, pulled back from fighting in the muddy fields of Ukraine, march smartly with polished rifles and white gloves in this weekend's rehearsals. Tanks and missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads chug across Moscow's Red Square. Supersonic fighter jets and strategic bombers fly in formation overhead. 

There's even an ominous appearance by Moscow's so-called "doomsday" plane planned. The high-tech command centre and getaway vehicle designed to spirit off Russia's top brass in the event of a nuclear war. 

Held almost every year since 1945, the May 9 parade marks the Soviet Red Army's victory over Nazi Germany in what's known in Russia as The Great Patriotic War.

This year especially, it has come to symbolize much more. It's now "a cornerstone of the narrative of Russia's greatness, heroism and sacrifice," said Kataryna Wolczuk, an associate fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at London's Chatham House. 

But if it's meant as a show of power for Russian President Vladimir Putin aimed at adversaries in Ukraine and the West, the question is: What will he do? 

Some expect a formal declaration of war, expanding what Russia has so far called a 'special operation' and leading to a national mobilization to send many more soldiers. Others predict Putin might resort to nuclear sabre-rattling with overt threats to use Russia's arsenal if pushed too far.

Like many others, Putin's former speechwriter is waiting for a dramatic announcement. 

"Everyone is expecting something to happen [on 9 May], both the enemies of Putin and his supporters," said Abbas Gallyamov, who is now a political consultant with the U.S.-based Foreign Policy Research Institute, told BBC News.

"These expectations created a vacuum that needs to be filled. If it's not, Putin will lose politically."

Putin's domestic audience is being told Russia's invasion of Ukraine, now in its third month, is another kind of "Great Patriotic War," in terms of "liberating Europe and standing up to evil of fascism in Ukraine," said Wolczuk.

The political message is working on many Russians, says Ian Garner, the author of an upcoming book on the mythology around the battle for Stalingrad in the Second World War and an expert in Russian propaganda.

As he monitors Russian state broadcasts and social media from Kingston, Ont., he sees domestic opinion "hardening" in the past few weeks. Loud, pro-war voices are becoming increasing "rabid and fervent" to see Ukraine collapse and are advocating erasing the country completely, while censorship is silencing opposing views, Garner said.

Still, even with that apparent public support for the invasion — even as Red Square echoes with upbeat marching bands and patriotic shouts of "hurrah" from soldiers practicing for tomorrow's parade — Putin has a serious problem.