Recency bias, small sample size and the odds of the Oilers winning the Stanley Cup
BNN Bloomberg
Making investment decisions is largely about making a bet – not unlike betting on who might win the game tonight.
Secondly, making investment decisions is largely about making a bet – not unlike betting on who might win the game tonight. What are the odds of a winning investment? We have spent the better part of 25 years on BNN Bloomberg educating Canadians about how to make better investment decisions.
Making an investment is rooted in probabilities – it’s just math (and a significant degree of emotions we are not always aware of). In investing, there are the qualitative (soft-side story) and quantitative (statistics) aspects of making the decision. Having elements of both are important.
The qualitative side tends to be more emotional while the quantitative side is more fact based. I’m (very likely) going to win the BNN Bloomberg staff hockey pool this year (I won a few times over the years, so clearly it’s no fluke). I’m up by 12 points with one game to go.
