RBC expects 'mild' recession in middle of 2023
BNN Bloomberg
Royal Bank of Canada economists are expecting a recession in the Canadian economy during the second and third quarters of the year, according to a report on Canada’s economic outlook that came out this week.
Their prediction puts a more specific timeline on RBC’s previously stated predictions for a 2023 recession, even though economic growth “has been more resilient than feared in the wake of aggressive interest rate increases” that began last year.
The economists said higher central bank interest rates will continue to impact the economy in 2023, weighing on household purchasing power and the housing market. At the same time, they said the global manufacturing outlook has softened and eased supply chain disruptions to help slow inflation.
“Against that backdrop, the most likely scenario is still that the U.S. and Canadian economies will both enter mild recessions over the middle-quarters of 2023,” the report said.
A key question hangs over the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting that ends Wednesday: Will central bank policymakers still reduce short-term interest rates this year, now that the Iran war has sent oil prices higher and gas prices spiking? Or will they have to stand pat for months to see how the conflict plays out?
Wall Street followed global markets higher Wednesday and the price of U.S. crude fell eased despite a new barrage of attacks by Iran on its Gulf neighbors.
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Shares advanced Wednesday in Europe and Asia as oil prices fell back slightly despite a barrage of attacks by Iran on its Gulf neighbours.
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Oil prices resumed their rise on Tuesday because of the war with Iran, but U.S. stocks held steadier this time around.
Oil prices above $100 add pressure on inflation and growth, complicating rate decisions for central banks.
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Markets in Canada and the U.S. were up in late-morning trading on Tuesday despite the ongoing war in Iran.
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Oil tankers are crossing the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s actions to choke traffic through the shipping route have not hurt the U.S. economy, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett told CNBC on Tuesday, reiterating the Trump administration’s position that the war should be over in weeks, not months.
Canada’s annual inflation rate slowed in February to 1.8 per cent, but many economists believe the new Statistics Canada data may be the dip before a spike driven by oil prices and the war in Iran.