QNB expects reacceleration of US economy in 2025

Doha: The Qatar National Bank (QNB) predicted that the US economy could grow an above consensus 2% this year, on the back of strong consumption and pr...

Doha: The Qatar National Bank (QNB) predicted that the US economy could grow an above consensus 2% this year, on the back of strong consumption and private investment.

In its Economic Commentary, QNB said: "At the beginning of the year, the outlook on the US economy pointed to a gentle slowdown in growth. But an agenda of disruptive policy change by the new administration began to take place, and the climate of optimism and positive market sentiment started to shift. Economic indicators have stabilized and, more surprisingly, some gauges even point to an acceleration in activity.

The "GDP Now” is an informative real-time, model-based "nowcast” produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, which delivers a running estimate of real GDP growth in the current quarter for the US economy. It leverages a large set of high-frequency indicators, from key economic sectors, and is therefore a representative summary of economic conditions.

The latest available estimate points to an annualized growth rate of 3.8% in Q3-2025, a significant re-acceleration in activity relative to the 0.6% contraction in Q1-2025.

In our view, the consensus growth forecast of 1.7% for this year is still lagging with respect to the latest information available and is therefore relatively pessimistic. In this article, we discuss the key components of GDP that are contributing to an acceleration of economic activity and support a relatively better outlook.