Poland rail explosion shows Europe still struggling to respond to Russia’s shadow war
CBC
When Poland announced this week that an explosion damaged a railway track leading to Ukraine, Prime Minister Donald Tusk was quick to declare it was an unprecedented act of sabotage designed to cause catastrophe.
In the hours that followed, Polish authorities said the two suspects behind the explosions were Ukrainian citizens backed by Russian intelligence, and that they had escaped by fleeing to Belarus.
In response, Warsaw announced it was closing Russia's last operating consulate in the country, located in the northern city of Gdansk, and that it would deploy up to 10,000 troops to protect critical infrastructure in Poland.
It was a quick response from a country that shares a more than 500-kilometre-long border with Ukraine, and has acutely felt the effects of Russia’s invasion spilling over its border — like in September, when around 20 Russian drones crossed into Polish airspace.
Across Europe, officials are grappling with how to deal with what some have described as an escalating Russian shadow war designed to disrupt and intimidate Ukrainian allies without triggering a more serious response.
"I think some countries are taking very strong stances, like Poland, but on the whole, I think [responding] is where we are falling short,” said Bart Schuurman, a professor of terrorism and political violence at Leiden University in the Netherlands.
“We’re falling short because these things are continuing to happen.”
Moscow, which views the West as directly involved in the war in Ukraine, denied being behind the railway explosion in Poland.
Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for the Kremlin, labelled Warsaw's claims as “Russophobia.” Peskov went on to say it was “noteworthy” that “once again” citizens of Ukraine are being questioned for sabotaging critical infrastructure.
It was a clear reference to the continuing investigation into the 2022 explosion involving the Nord Stream pipeline, which carried Russian gas to Europe. Germany has accused a former Ukrainian military officer as being involved.
While Russia frequently tries to bat away accusations as baseless finger-pointing, Western authorities believe Russian intelligence services are behind a slew of sabotage operations across Europe.
Experts say in many cases, individuals were recruited on social media to carry out the attacks, as many Russian agents and diplomatic staff were evicted from their foreign postings in the wake of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Schuurman has created a database tracking various incidents believed to be linked to Russian agents. He has catalogued cases of arson, targeted violence, vandalism and sabotage.
He only included events in his records if Western authorities directly accused Russia of being involved, if an incident was part of a clear pattern or if there was substantial reporting implicating Russian intelligence.
