Poilievre courts delegates as he faces a must-win leadership review vote

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre's fate will be put to delegates at the party's convention in Calgary on Friday. While those around him are confident he can avoid being turfed, the leader's loyalists are doing all they can to ensure he easily clears this must-win vote.

Poilievre has been busy working the phones and dropping in to ridings across the country to meet members who will decide if the party stays the course or holds a new leadership election. 

"Essentially the only people Pierre's been speaking to over the last number of weeks are delegates. He's leaving nothing to chance," said one senior Conservative source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal party dynamics.

Poilievre needs a majority of delegates to vote no on triggering what the party calls a leadership selection process to hang on to his position, but barely clearing 50 per cent would be catastrophic.

All eyes are on the margin. If a sizable number of delegates want to go in a different direction, Poilievre could face questions about his viability.

One party source said Poilievre must do as well as former prime minister Stephen Harper did in his 2005 review — 84 per cent of the 2,900 delegates endorsed his leadership — to quiet the naysayers.

Asked in an interview what percentage Poilievre needs to get to keep his job, Conservative MP Andrew Scheer, the party's House leader and a close confidant of Poilievre, wouldn't give a specific number.

"I just want a great result. Our caucus is united. We're focused," Scheer said, while noting Poilievre is appealing to new voters and many of the delegates will be first-timers. "We'll see what happens in Calgary but I'm optimistic."

"I'm not giving up. I don't quit," Poilievre himself said in a social media video ahead of Friday's vote. "I'm going to keep on fighting for the Canadian people and their chance to have an affordable, safe future."

Convention turnout is an open question and the party said it won't confirm final delegate figures until Friday.

What is known is the event is being held in a Prairie city friendly to Poilievre — Calgary is his hometown — far from eastern and central population centres where his support is weaker.

This meeting is also being held on the same weekend the Ontario Progressive Conservatives are gathering for their own convention, which is likely to Poilievre's benefit given tension between the federal and provincial parties.

According to a membership list shared with CBC News, there were roughly 350 prospective delegates from Quebec as of last week, a number that is expected to fluctuate.

One party source from the province said fewer than that figure are expected to attend and vote in the review. Ridings in that province could have sent as many as 936 delegates given each electoral district is allocated up to 12 spots.