Pakistan and Iran: calm after the storm | Explained

The text discusses the demography, geography, borders, and strategic importance of the Baloch provinces in Iran and Pakistan, as well as the recent tensions and limited escalation between the two countries.

The story so far: In a series of events, Iran launched missile strikes in Pakistan’s Balochistan province, targeting alleged strongholds of the Jaish al-Adl. In response, Pakistan condemned the attacks, recalling its Ambassador and expelling the Iranian Ambassador, while also suspending high profile bilateral visits. A day later, Pakistan retaliated by targeting individuals and terrorist groups in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan province. However, with a diplomatic approach, Pakistan emphasised its respect for Iran, preventing further escalation. On January 19, at a National Security Council meeting aimed at addressing security concerns for regional peace, both nations decided to de-escalate, reinstating ambassadors, and by January 28, Iran’s Foreign Minister arrived in Islamabad to discuss economic and security matters, signaling a shift towards dialogue and cooperation.

First, the demography and geography of the provinces. The Sistan-Baluchestan province, one of the largest provinces in Iran, shares the border with Pakistan’s Balochistan and Afghanistan’s southern provinces. The Baloch are the majority in the Sistan-Baluchestan province, with Sistanis as a minority. The former is Sunni, while the latter is Shia. 

Geographically, Balochistan is the largest of four provinces in Pakistan, with a Baloch majority (which is now being threatened by the Pashtun ingress from Afghanistan and Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa). However, Baloch are a minority within Pakistan.

Second, the borders. Pakistan’s Balochistan province shares a long border with Iran, around 900 km. Unlike the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, which is disputed by Kabul, the Pakistan-Iran border is settled. Both countries have been building a concrete wall along the border to prevent illegal crossings between Balochistan (in Pakistan) and Sistan-Baluchestan (in Iran) provinces. However, the border remains ineffective in preventing the illicit movement of people and goods, especially along the land and maritime borders. Smuggling is common, especially in the south, closer to the Pakistan-Iran maritime border.

Third, two ports of strategic importance — Gwadar in Pakistan and Chabahar in Iran, are situated on the mouths of the Arabian Sea less than 200 km apart. China and India have invested in these two ports and see them as exit and entry points from/into maritime/mainland Asia. Baloch provinces are strategically important for Iran and Pakistan; however, they remain in the political periphery and are alienated from the national capitals. For the national capitals, the control of the provinces and the two ports is paramount. 

In Pakistan, Iran targeted a relatively little-known Sunni militant group — “Jaish al-Adl,” based in Balochistan. According to Iran’s Foreign Minister, “none of the nationals of the friendly and brotherly country of Pakistan were targeted by Iranian missiles and drones.” Considered as a remnant of Jundullah, Iran has been fighting it since the late 2000s.

The Jundullah, believed to be founded by Abdolmalek Rigi, was present then in the Sistan-Baluchestan province and has repeatedly been targeting Iran’s security forces and civilian targets through terrorist activities, including suicide bombings. Iran has been targeting the Jundullah leader; Rigi, a Baloch, was captured and executed in 2010.