Oscars 2025: Who's likely to win, who should win — and how to sound smart at your Oscars party

Ready for the Oscars party … but not so much the awards? 

That would make sense. From Emilia Pérez star Karla Sofía Gascón's racist tweets resurfacing, to The Brutalist's use of AI, to allegations of "category fraud" (don't worry, we'll get to it), it's been nearly impossible to keep up with the Academy controversy — even for those of us paid to do it. 

So, for those with a normal nine-to-five, a cheat sheet might come in handy before the 97th Academy Awards air this Sunday, March 2. 

To help, we've gathered some of the top categories, their projected winners and even thrown in some wildcards for you in case of upsets — along with all the nerdy tidbits you need to sound like you've been watching along all season.

Probably: Anora

Maybe: Conclave

Should (Not) Win: Emilia Pérez

If frontrunner Anora triumphs, it will be the lowest-grossing winner since 1977's Annie Hall (excluding the pandemic-hampered, digitally released CODA). If adjusted for inflation, it would be among the lowest ever — potentially showcasing how the awards have drifted even further away from audiences. 

If latecomer Conclave manages an upset (presaged by its best film award at the BAFTAS and cast award at the Screen Actors Guild awards), things might feel a bit more on-track. Its gross is north of $100 million US.

Previous frontrunner Emilia Pérez is almost definitely going home empty-handed here, but with its huge 13 nominations now tainted by controversy, it could earn a different distinction. If it wins just one award, it will be the losingest movie in the Academy's history. If it only wins two, it will be tied with Becket and Johnny Belinda (nominated for 12, winning one) and The Turning Point and The Color Purple (nominated for 11, winning none). If it loses everything, well, that will be crazy, won't it?

Probably: Sean Baker, Anora

Maybe: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Should Have Won: RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys

Corbet is competitive here, but Baker's Anora is definitely favoured. The winners of the directing categories at the BAFTAs and the Directors Guild of America awards almost identically mimic the best director winner at the Oscars, but there was a split this year, with Corbet winning the BAFTA, and Baker picking up the DGA award.