Opinion | US Election: What Exactly Would A Trump Or A Harris Mean For The World?

The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election is being keenly watched around the world, both for the outcome and for the consequences. One month out, the polls suggest a virtual tie. Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democrat, had seen an increase in popularity after donning her party's official nomination in August. But over the past two weeks, a series of events - a devastating hurricane in North Carolina, growing tensions in the Middle East, the Vice Presidential debate, and concerns about recurring inflation - appear to be shifting the momentum back toward former President Donald Trump. Much could still happen over the next month, but ultimately, the outcome will be determined by seven 'swing states' - Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, and Wisconsin - and each could be decided by only a few tens of thousands of voters. Although Democrats are likely to win more votes overall (as they have in seven of the last eight presidential elections), their ability to ensure higher voter turnout among their supporters in these swing states may well turn out to be the decisive factor.

This election campaign is being waged less on issues and more on impressions and attitudes. Trump is playing on dissatisfaction with the bureaucratic state, a scepticism of international entanglements, lower taxes for businesses and investors, curbs on immigration, and social conservatism, although he has attempted to dilute the latter to appeal more to moderate voters. Harris has positioned herself as appealing to youth, urban voters, ethnic minorities, responsible governance, and progressive social causes. Their competing worldviews reflect a rigid divide in American society across age and class lines, ethnic groups, and especially urban and rural constituencies, across which Republicans and Democrats have consolidated deeply entrenched if 'big tent' coalitions. Suburban voters, white women, second-generation Hispanics, and union workers are among the constituencies in which Republicans and Democrats are still battling to sway opinion.The 2024 US presidential election outcome will matter to India, although less directly perhaps than it will to some other countries and regions. For US adversaries (China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea) the election will determine negotiations over future relations. For US allies (NATO members in Europe, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia), the election could signal changes to US force posture, assistance, and commitment. For those actively involved in current or prospective conflicts (Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan), the outcome will determine the nature of US military aid. And for major trade partners (Mexico, ASEAN, the UK), the election could have deep ramifications for their economies.