OPEC+ cuts that steadied market now bring risk of US$100 crude

Oil's rise toward US$100 a barrel is exposing some of the risks in OPEC+'s controversial production cuts.

For about a month, the group's decision appeared to fulfill its stated aim of stabilizing oil markets, with crude prices steadying against a deteriorating backdrop for fuel demand. 

Now, at the mid-point between the Oct. 5 OPEC+ meeting and the group's next gathering in December, prices have moved close to triple digits again as the seasonal demand peak threatens to coincide with additional sanctions on Russian supplies. 

“I think OPEC+ is super-happy with stabilizing Brent in the US$90s,” said Helge Andre Martinsen, senior analyst at DNB Bank ASA in Oslo. But “there is a real risk of over-tightening in the next three-to-five months.”