Ontario delivers its fall economic statement today. Here's what to expect

Ontario’s finance minister is set to deliver a key fiscal update today, pledging to keep the province on a path to balance despite the ongoing trade war with the U.S.

Peter Bethlenfalvy made the pledge earlier this week to a business audience in Toronto as he laid the foundation for the fall economic statement. The minister said the document will show Ontario’s books will be in the black by 2027-2028, which was projected in his spring budget. 

The minister said he intends to hit that target even though the economy is feeling the effects of the U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs.

“You know, while people have been desensitized to debts and deficits, I think they still really matter,” Bethlenfalvy said.

”And we have an obligation not just to think about, as (former prime minister) Brian Muloney said, the next 10 days, but think about the next 10 years.”

Ontario finished the last fiscal year with a deficit of just over a billion dollars, but is projecting a $14.5-billion shortfall in this year’s budget. It’s not clear if that target will have changed in the economic statement because of tariffs. 

But Bethlenfalvy said he remains committed to balancing by the 2027-2028 fiscal year.

“Don't underestimate our drive to provide a balanced fiscal plan for Ontarians, because it allows you then to do all these other things responsibly,” he said.

Bethlenfalvy has already announced one new measure that will add costs to the provincial treasury, agreeing to match a federal to cut HST on new home purchases for first-time homebuyers. The full scope of those costs will be detailed in the plan, the government has said.

It’s all meant to spur more home construction in the province at at time when the market has stalled. 

But overall, Bethlenfalvy said Ontarians should expect the emphasis of the economic update to be on the province’s tariff response, which includes a previously announced $5-billion fund to help businesses impacted by the fees. 

“Here in Canada, we have more than enough firepower to take matters into our own hands and grow our economy independently of us tariff pressures,” he said.

On Wednesday, NDP Leader Marit Stiles said she wants to see a plan to help the thousands of employed workers struggling because of the trade war. So far, the government’s plans haven’t been good enough, she said.

“We’ve been looking for a jobs plan from this government, and I think that's what working people are going to be looking for as well,” she said. “A strategy to save jobs now, not pie-in-the-sky vanity projects that may never deliver jobs in the next few decades.”