One year on, Trump tariffs still shape Doug Ford’s politics as Ontario economy faces strain

A year after winning a third-straight majority government on a pledge to “protect Ontario" from U.S. tariffs, the fight against Donald Trump continues to fuel Doug Ford’s policy and politics. 

And experts watching the province’s struggling economy say the year ahead may prove even more challenging for the Ford government as key trade talks between the U.S. and Canada unfold.

When Ford was re-elected one year ago, the premier cast himself in the role of “Captain Canada," aggressively pushing back against Trump and his tariff threats. Fast forward a year, and Trump remains a key focus for the premier, never far from conversation during his media appearances.

“How can one person, one man, create so much turmoil around the world?” Ford said of Trump during a news conference this week at Queen’s Park. “It is pretty staggering.” 

Trump’s punishing tariffs have resulted in thousands of layoffs in Ontario’s trade-dependent economy, taking a larger toll on the auto, steel and aluminum industries. Between the second and third quarters of 2025, Ontario shed nearly 40,000 jobs, largely because of the trade war.

The province’s unemployment rate, which was already creeping up before Trump was elected, rose to 7.8 per cent last year, according to the latest report from the province’s independent fiscal watchdog. 

Last spring, the Ford government created a six-month deferral of about $9 billion in provincially administered business taxes and rebated $2 billion of Workplace Safety and Insurance Board premiums to employers. It also announced a $70 million retraining fund for workers impacted by the trade war.

That plan received a positive grade from the CEO of Ontario’s Chamber of Commerce, Daniel Tisch, who called the province’s work “serious” and “meaningful”.

“Those sorts of initiatives have been really valuable short-term measures,” said Tisch.

“The tricky balance is also investing in the long-term.” 

The province has also shifted its focus to eliminating interprovincial trade barriers and expediting approvals for major mining and energy projects in a bid to bolster the economy. 

Ontario’s former chief economist, Brian Lewis, said the province’s economy has taken a hit, but has been more resilient than expected in the face of the tariffs. He called the Ford government’s response package “reasonable," and similar to its approach during the early days of COVID-19 lockdowns. 

“Borrowing on the pandemic playbook, something that they knew how to implement, probably had a pretty useful impact on companies,” said Lewis, who is now a senior fellow and sessional lecturer at the Munk School for Global Affairs and Public Policy.

But those measures take a toll on the province’s finances, he added.