One Obstacle for Trump’s Promises: This Isn’t the 2016 Economy
The New York Times
Donald J. Trump slapped tariffs on trading partners and cut taxes in his first term. But after inflation’s return, a repeat playbook would be riskier.
When Donald J. Trump became president in 2017, prices had risen roughly 5 percent over the previous four years. If he were to win the race for the White House in 2024, he would be entering office at a time when they are up 20 percent and counting.
That is a critically different economic backdrop for the kind of policies — tariffs and tax cuts — that the Republican contender has put at the center of his campaign.
Mr. Trump regularly blames the Biden administration for the recent price surge, but inflation has been a global phenomenon since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. Supply chain problems, shifting consumer spending patterns and other quirks related to pandemic lockdowns and their aftermath collided with stimulus-fueled demand to send costs shooting higher.
The years of unusually rapid inflation that resulted have changed the nation’s economic picture in important ways. Businesses are more accustomed to adjusting prices and consumers are more used to those changes than they were before the pandemic, when costs had been quiescent for decades. Beyond that, the Federal Reserve has lifted interest rates to 5.3 percent in a bid to slow demand and wrestle the situation under control.
That combination — jittery inflation expectations and higher interest rates — could make many of the ideas Mr. Trump talks about on the campaign trail either riskier or more costly than before, especially at a moment when the economy is running at full speed and unemployment is very low.
Mr. Trump is suggesting tax cuts that could speed up the economy and add to the deficit, potentially boosting inflation and adding to the national debt at a time when it costs a lot for the government to borrow. He has talked about mass deportations at a moment when economists warn that losing a lot of would-be workers could cause labor shortages and push up prices. He promises to ramp up tariffs across the board — and drastically on China — in a move that might sharply increase import prices.
Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways have become some of the world’s largest and most profitable thanks to their location at the center of busy travel routes.
Geography and regional rivalries have prevented Gulf countries from finding a true alternative to the strait, which the war with Iran has effectively shut down.
President Trump’s son-in-law is trying to raise $5 billion or more from foreign governments and others for his private equity firm.
A methodological change contributed to a better-than-expected inflation report, prompting questions from some economists.
Beyond its effects on oil and gas, the unfolding war in the Middle East is roiling shipping and airfreight, threatening the availability of a vast range of goods.
High-energy lasers can burn drones in the sky like a blowtorch. But they can be stymied by weather, and making them at scale will be a challenge.
Countries already walloped by a breakdown of the international trading order, war in Ukraine and chaotic U.S. policymaking are facing potentially lasting economic damage.
A Washington Post appeal for information about the military qualified as prohibited “solicitation,” according to defense officials.
The technology giant’s siding with Anthropic in its fight against the Pentagon stands out in an era when big companies have tended to keep quiet.
Drivers are paying an average of 20 percent more at the pump since the strikes on Iran began. The global oil price was higher and stocks were mixed.
Whether President Trump signaled that he may soon end the military strikes is weighing on the minds of investors, executives and others.
Ms. Stockwell, who recently left The Washington Post, is the third person named to the job in the past three years.
Across Asia, where countries are highly exposed to rising oil and gas costs and tightening supply, governments are acting to mitigate economic harm.