Once-in-a-century chaos strikes Congress — and its effects could reach beyond the U.S.

The new U.S. Congress has spent its first three days in limbo. It might well prove to be an omen.

For the third straight day, Republicans in the House of Representatives on Thursday appeared to have failed to elect a Speaker, a historic debacle unseen in exactly 100 years.

This was supposed to be the easy part.

But the days of torture endured by Republican Kevin McCarthy, who's now lost seven votes for Speaker, foreshadow likely dysfunction in the incoming Congress, with consequences that could reach beyond the U.S.

This crew struggling to elect a Speaker will soon be asked to perform far more difficult tasks that touch the global economy: like funding the U.S. government and approving U.S. debt payments.

"It is a really worrying portent," said Geoffrey Kabaservice, an author, historian of conservatism and centre-right Republican himself.

"Basically it comes down to the fact that the Republican Party, as presently constituted, is not really governable," he said. 

"I think that even a lot of the Democrats, who are kind of gleeful over this vision of Republican chaos right now, understand that this is going to cause real problems later on."

The paralysis in the House illustrates a warning for 2023 by the geopolitical risk-assessment Eurasia Group: that American political dysfunction could hurt other countries, and it specifically mentioned Canada.

The standoff has historical precedents.

Several times before the Civil War, then again in 1923, it took a gruelling series of votes to muster up the necessary majority for any one candidate to lead the U.S. House. 

These moments were transition points defined by political crises. Kabaservice notes a common factor of those moments: a rise of anti-immigration politics, following surges in immigration and demographic change. 

There are other relevant parallels. 

Like today, the 1923 standoff was driven by the same two overlapping factors, according to a contemporaneous report: personal power-struggles and policy differences.