Omicron expected to fuel workplace ‘absenteeism’ in January as cases surge

The Omicron variant's rapid spread will only make it harder for Canadian businesses to find staff in January, one senior economist is warning.

The number of people unable to work because of COVID-19 is likely being underestimated and will rise in the new year, a Canadian economist is warning, putting further strain on businesses already facing restrictions related to the Omicron wave.

Vancouver-based clothing retailer Lululemon Athletica gave markets a sign of the looming impact of isolated workers on Canada’s economy Monday, signaling that its full-year earnings would be on the lower end of expectations thanks to a series of pandemic-related concerns including “limited staff availability.”

Word that shifts are going unfilled at Lululemon follows Friday’s latest jobs numbers from Statistics Canada, which showed more than 55,000 net new positions added in December.

But some economists watching the Omicron wave sweep across the country say other figures in Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey could point to a tough month ahead for the Canadian economy.

Despite the jump in jobs during the typically busy holiday season, total hours worked in Canada saw “little change” from November to December, the agency reported.

This figure, which accounts for lost hours due to sickness as well as extra hours taken for overtime, is key to measuring Omicron’s impact on the workforce, according to Stephen Brown, senior Canada economist at Capital Economics.

Current case figures in Canada would suggest maybe 0.5 per cent of workers are sidelined with an active COVID-19 infection, Brown tells Global News.

But given the way the fast-spreading Omicron variant has overwhelmed testing capacity in provinces such as Ontario, he believes the rate of “absenteeism” among Canadian workers on any given week is closer to 1.5 per cent.