Oil rally pauses as curve shows one of the tightest markets ever
BNN Bloomberg
Oil fell Thursday even as the futures curve continued to signal one of the strongest periods the market has ever seen amid ongoing price volatility.
Oil fell Thursday even as the futures curve continued to signal one of the strongest periods the market has ever seen amid ongoing price volatility.
Futures in New York closed 2 per cent lower. Geopolitical risks, including the potential return of Iranian barrels and political tension around Ukraine, have kept prices swinging throughout the week. That volatility has rippled across the market’s forward structure.
Nearby contracts are commanding enormous premiums over those further out, indicating that traders are clamoring for barrels right now. Some futures spreads have reached their strongest levels in data going back to 2007.
Nowhere is the move clearer than in the world’s most important physical oil price -- Dated Brent -- which on Wednesday topped US$100 for the first time since 2014. The market for real barrels in the North Sea has boomed in recent weeks, with differentials for some physical cargoes hitting the highest on record as demand from European refiners surges.
“The strength in Dated Brent clearly suggests refiners are out procuring short-haul barrels,” Energy Aspects analysts including Amrita Sen wrote in a note to clients this week. “The only way to balance this market over the medium term remains high oil prices to slow demand growth.”
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A key question hangs over the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting that ends Wednesday: Will central bank policymakers still reduce short-term interest rates this year, now that the Iran war has sent oil prices higher and gas prices spiking? Or will they have to stand pat for months to see how the conflict plays out?
Wall Street followed global markets higher Wednesday and the price of U.S. crude fell eased despite a new barrage of attacks by Iran on its Gulf neighbors.
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Shares advanced Wednesday in Europe and Asia as oil prices fell back slightly despite a barrage of attacks by Iran on its Gulf neighbours.
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Oil prices resumed their rise on Tuesday because of the war with Iran, but U.S. stocks held steadier this time around.
Oil prices above $100 add pressure on inflation and growth, complicating rate decisions for central banks.
Closing arguments are set to kick off Tuesday in a trial pitting Elon Musk against Twitter shareholders who say the world’s richest man engaged in a pattern of deceptive behavior that misled investors as he attempted to back out of his US$44-billion deal to buy the social media platform in 2022.
Markets in Canada and the U.S. were up in late-morning trading on Tuesday despite the ongoing war in Iran.
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New York Stock Exchange-parent Intercontinental Exchange said on Tuesday it has launched a product to bring greater transparency to the private credit market, an asset class beleaguered by heightened investor concerns.
Oil tankers are crossing the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s actions to choke traffic through the shipping route have not hurt the U.S. economy, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett told CNBC on Tuesday, reiterating the Trump administration’s position that the war should be over in weeks, not months.