Oil prices set for swings next week after U.S., Israel strikes on Iran
Global News
Oil prices have already risen on war fears. International benchmark Brent crude closed at a seven-month high of US$72.87 on Friday.
Oil markets currently closed for the weekend are set to see price swings next week as the impact from the U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran on oil supplies from the Middle East remains unclear.
Scenarios before the latest conflict with Iran foresaw a quick price spike that fades if the attacks didn’t affect oil shipping and infrastructure such as Iranian pipelines and its Kharg island terminal. However, there would be a bigger price spike and longer-lasting impact if oil infrastructure or supplies were interrupted, for instance because of disruption of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices have already risen on war fears. International benchmark Brent crude closed at a seven-month high of US$72.87 on Friday.
Iran exports some 1.6 million barrels of oil a day, most of it going to China, where privately owned refineries are less concerned about the U.S. sanctions that prevent Iran from selling its oil elsewhere. If that supply is disrupted, Chinese customers would look elsewhere for oil on the global market, potentially driving up prices.
Another question is around the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 per cent of global oil supply pass through each day. Middle East exporters Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates send most of their exports through the strait. However, analysts say Iran has no incentive to try to close the strait because it would cut off its own exports and hurt its only big customer, China.
Limited strikes on Iran’s nuclear program and the Revolutionary Guard that avoid regime change or all-out war could see prices jump US$5-US$10 based on fear alone, according to Rystad Energy in a prewar scenario.
A wider war involving Iranian disruption of tanker traffic could see crude push past US$90 per barrel and US gas prices “well above” US$3 per gallon, according to another prewar scenario from Clayton Seigle at the Center for Strategic & International Studies. U.S. gas prices averaged US$2.98 per gallon last week, according to U.S. motoring club AAA.
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Iran's military command said on Wednesday the world should be prepared for oil to hit US$200 a barrel, as three more ships came under attack in the blockaded Gulf.
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The department said it is also seeing fewer Canadians take government-assisted travel options as flights gradually resume in certain parts of the region.
The war has sent oil prices surging, upending global travel, pushing airline tickets on some routes sky-high, and sparking fears of a deep travel slump.
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the United States would carry out the most intense day of strikes against Iran on Tuesday.
Trump said the war would continue until Iran is 'totally and decisively defeated' and predicted it would be over 'very soon,' but denied suggestions it could end this week.
G7 finance ministers said they were monitoring the situation and were prepared to implement 'necessary measures,' but stopped short of committing to release emergency reserves.