Oil prices likely to top $90 after Iran strikes, but retreat afterward

Expect short-term disruption and uncertainty, analysts say. But unless there's prolonged conflict, markets should settle down relatively quickly.

Oil markets are likely to be choppy in the coming days amid military strikes between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, but may settle relatively soon after that.

Analysts expect crude oil, which ended trading on Friday at about $67 a barrel, to open the week at $90 or higher as traders process the news that Iranian forces had restricted traffic through the crucial Strait of Hormuz.

But after the initial shock, the realities are likely to be more nuanced, analysts say. Here’s what you should know.

About 20% of the global daily oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz every day. Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates send most of their oil exports through there. 

But just because Iran claims to have blocked off traffic through the passage, that doesn’t necessarily mean complete closure, said petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan.