Odds of asteroid YR4 2024 hitting Earth in 2032 go up, then down again, in latest NASA analysis
CBSN
An asteroid gaining notoriety for its potential to collide with Earth in 2032 was estimated Tuesday to have roughly a 3% chance of striking our planet — the highest probability ever assigned — before additional analysis Wednesday lowered the chances to about 1.5%, according to NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies.
Risks of the massive space rock — which falls into the "city killer" category — actually making impact have fluctuated since it was first discovered last December. Called 2024 YR4, the near-Earth asteroid initially carried a 1% chance of hitting land when NASA and the European Space Agency first announced its existence last month.
Protocols require the agencies to formally notify the public when the odds of an asteroid strike reach that 1% threshold, which in itself is an extremely rare occurrence.
