Now That Rates Are Falling, Let’s Turn to Other Matters

The Federal Reserve has at last cut interest rates but our columnist points out a host of concerns that could weigh on financial markets.

The Federal Reserve has started cutting interest rates at long last, and it’s a relief that financial conditions in the United States will be easing. But it’s far too early to celebrate.

The stock market has been rising anyway, with the S&P 500 closing at a new high on Thursday, one day after the Fed’s action.

Even so, there’s plenty to worry about.

Start wherever you like. Personally, I begin with broad political and geopolitical concerns, not specifically financial ones, leading with the presidential election in the United States, which is still too close to call. Then, when I can stand it, I survey tensions around the globe, from the hostilities in the Middle East to Russia’s war in Ukraine to incipient conflicts involving China in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.

There’s no shortage of explicit economic and financial issues percolating within U.S. borders, either. The Fed depicted its decision to reduce the benchmark federal funds rate by half a percentage point as a prophylactic measure, aimed at heading off an unemployment spiral. The economy looks fairly strong now, but unemployment has already begun to rise and in many past cycles, slowing job growth has culminated in mass layoffs. The potential for a widening economic slowdown that becomes a full-blown recession will be with us for some time.

By beginning its rate cuts with a bang, reducing the federal funds rate by twice the quarter-point minimum with which it might have started, the Fed indicated that it was reasonably optimistic that inflation would remain subdued.