Nova Scotia Tories appear safe with Liberals, NDP battling for second: polls

Polls suggest voters will return the Nova Scotia Conservatives to government on Tuesday's election and that Liberals and NDP are in a close race to form the Official Opposition.

With two days left before Nova Scotians elect their next government, polls suggest Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Houston’s decision to call an early vote will pay off and the real battle will be between the Liberals and NDP for second place.

The Progressive Conservatives are seeking a second consecutive mandate Tuesday after sweeping the Liberals from power in August 2021. Tory Leader Tim Houston called the snap election on Oct. 27 citing the need for a fresh mandate and ignoring his government’s election law, which for the first time in Nova Scotia set a fixed election date — July 15, 2025.

In a recent interview, Alex Marland, a political scientist at Acadia University, said the final result is shaping up to be what Houston hoped for when he called the election. Marland said several factors were at play in Houston’s political calculus to go early.

“He was ahead in the polls and there was the lack of public attention or excitement or enthusiasm for an election coming against the backdrop of all the attention paid to the U.S. election, and of course there were (Nova Scotia) municipal elections,” said Marland. “The fact it was a snap election caught the other parties off guard and made it harder for them to organize.”

He said the result has been an absence of “interest, anger or motivation” on the part of the electorate. “I think that ultimately benefits the Progressive Conservatives,” said Marland.

A Narrative Research poll released Wednesday put the Tories comfortably ahead with 44 per cent support. The NDP were second at 28 per cent and the Liberals third with 24 per cent. The survey of 800 adult Nova Scotians between Nov. 4 and 17 is considered accurate within 3.5 percentage points, 95 times out of 100.

Tom Urbaniak, of Cape Breton University, said the campaign has been “maybe the quietest I’ve seen in Nova Scotia.”

“It just feels less intense on the ground,” Urbaniak said. “There are fewer signs and less literature going to doors, and there appears to be less conversation in coffee shops.”