‘Non-aligned’ Indonesia votes today with high stakes for U.S. and China

The upcoming Indonesian election holds high stakes for the US and China in their rivalry for influence in the region.

When Indonesians cast their votes on Wednesday for a new President in one of the world’s biggest elections, the stakes will also be high for the United States and China and their mounting rivalry in the region.

The southeast Asian nation is a key battleground economically and politically in a region where global powers have long been on a collision course over Taiwan, human rights, U.S. military deployments and Beijing’s aggressive actions in disputed waters, including the South China Sea.

Outgoing President Joko Widodo’s foreign policy has avoided criticising either Beijing or Washington, but also rejected alignment with either power. The delicate balancing act has paved the way for substantial Chinese trade and investment for Indonesia, including a $7.3 billion high-speed railway that was largely funded by China, while Jakarta has also boosted defence ties and intensified military exercises with the U.S.

These policies would likely continue if election frontrunner Prabowo Subianto, the current Defence Minister whose vice presidential running mate is Mr. Widodo’s eldest son, wins, according to analysts.

“The problem for great powers, however, is that Jakarta is assiduously non-aligned and almost certainly will remain as such regardless of who wins,” said Derek Grossman, a senior defence analyst at Rand Corp., a U.S.-based think tank.

Policy of neutrality

Mr. Subianto adheres to a policy of neutrality and has publicly praised the U.S. and China. He cited America’s historical role in pressuring the Netherlands to recognise Indonesian sovereignty in the 1940s, during a forum in November at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Jakarta.