No Trump tariffs for now, but Canadian businesses are preparing anyway

Canada might be spared from Donald Trump's tariffs for now, but Canadian business leaders and owners have been thinking about what might happen with the threatened tariffs — and what they're doing to prepare.

After wide speculation that the newly sworn-in president of the United States would impose a promised 25 per cent tax on imported goods during his first day in office, multiple news organizations — led by the Wall Street Journal — reported Monday that this won't be the case.

But Trump doubled down again Monday evening after his inauguration, musing that he would slap tariffs on Canada and Mexico as soon as Feb. 1.

A survey from the Bank of Canada released on the same day showed nearly a quarter of Canadian businesses expect their costs to rise as Trump takes office again.

About 18 per cent of the businesses polled expected their prices to rise, while 11 per cent expected them to come down, according to the survey. Forty per cent expect that the Trump administration will have a negative impact on their businesses while a third said it was too early to tell.

The polling was done in December.

Kacee Vasudeva, the CEO of auto parts plant Ultra-Form Manufacturing in Toronto, said he thinks Canadian unemployment numbers will "go through the roof" if the tariffs materialize. His own company has 45 employees.

"I'm concerned. We just got an order this week for $1 million from the U.S. We didn't count the duty in there yet," said Vasudeva. If the tariffs happen, he says he'll have to refuse the order. 

Having spent 40 years in the business, Vasudeva says that most of his American customers are fair negotiators and he doesn't expect that to change. But, he said, "Trump is going to take advantage of us [like] there's no tomorrow."

Roughly 90 per cent of the manufacturing firm's output consists of small automotive components — including cooling system parts, brake line and fuel line fittings — that go across the border and are assembled in the U.S. for clients like Ford and General Motors. 

Tariffs will ultimately hurt consumers the most, Vasudeva said, but he said his own costs will go up and that his business could suffer as a result. "We are preparing. We will do whatever we need to do to stay in the business."

Canadian oil prices, weakened in recent weeks as speculation mounted that Trump would impose tariffs during his first day back in the Oval Office, rallied on Monday as news spread that the administration would hold off on the threat.

Instead, Trump will direct U.S. agencies to study trade deficits with other countries and "address unfair trade and currency policies by other nations."

The federal government confirmed to Radio-Canada last week that it was preparing retaliatory tariffs, applicable to $37 billion in U.S. goods, to impose on the U.S. if Trump went ahead with his own tariffs on Monday.