News Analysis : A return to uncertainty, tariffs and a transactional approach under DonaldTrump Premium

Potential U.S. policy changes towards India under a Harris or Trump administration, focusing on trade, defense, and space cooperation.

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are neck and neck in the race for the White House. It is likely that if Ms Harris wins that many of her policies towards India will pick up where Mr Biden left off. There may be some greater emphasis on issues that are important to the left flank of the Democratic party — such as stronger or more public positions if the U.S. has concerns about democratic norms and human rights in the actions of the Narendra Modi government. There will likely also be a greater engagement with groups in the U.S. who raise these concerns.  Inter-governmental discussions on these subjects are largely — but not fully — managed behind closed doors and that is likely to continue.

Any step changes in U.S. policy towards India are more likely to appear if Mr Trump becomes President. These changes may result from first order impacts, such as in trade, the energy sector,  or the initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET). But there are second order changes which could be at least as  profound, but felt only in the medium to long term. These might occur through Mr Trump’s approach to the Ukraine-Russia war, the conflict in West Asia, and importantly actions vis-à-vis China, the South Asian neighbourhood and the Indo Pacific.

Outcomes under a hypothetical second Trump administration are uncertain, not least because of the unpredictability that is at the core of Mr Trump’s strategy and approach.

Given the breadth and depth of iCET, an initiative launched in 2023 by the Biden administration and Narendra Modi government  and led by the countries’ National Security Advisors, it is likely to continue.

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Consider cooperation in the domain of outer space, an aspect of iCET , for instance. Mr Trump – especially since his close embrace of SpaceX founder Elon Musk, is continuing to show signs that he will be supportive of space exploration and its commercialization. He sought to promote private space exploration by scaling down regulation while in office and targeted a moon-landing by 2024. The Trump administration also established the  U.S. Space Command and the U.S. Space Force.

The ground is set for greater space cooperation between India and the US,  whether there is a continuity in policy under a Harris administration or a switch to a Trump administration, especially with India signing the Artemis Accords in June 2023.