New climate data set for India unveiled by Bengaluru-based Azim Premji University
The Hindu
According to the Climate Change Projections for India (2021-40) report, the projections examine two IPCC (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios: SSP2-4.5 (moderate emissions and adaptation) and SSP5-8.5 (high emissions with heavy fossil fuel reliance).
The average annual maximum temperature will experience an increase of 1.5 degree Celsius by 2057 under ‘the middle of the road’ emission scenario while the more extreme ‘fossil-fueled development’ emission scenario predicts this temperature rise will occur a decade earlier, by 2047.
This is one of the many key findings of the Azim Premji University’s new climate data set for India, which was unveiled on November 17.
According to the Climate Change Projections for India (2021-40) report, the projections examine two IPCC (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios: SSP2-4.5 (moderate emissions and adaptation) and SSP5-8.5 (high emissions with heavy fossil fuel reliance).
In other words, the ‘middle of the road’ emission scenario assumes that society will take moderate steps to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change, which will lead to moderate effects in the future. The ‘fossil-fueled development’ emission scenario presumes that society will continue to rely heavily on fossil fuels for energy, leading to a future with very high emissions and severe impacts.
Another finding is that India’s average summer maximum temperature will have a 1.5-degree Celsius increase by 2043, according to the ‘middle of the road’ emission scenario and by 2041 for the ‘fossil-fueled development’ emission scenario.
Under the low emission scenario, 196 districts in India will experience a summer maximum temperature increase of at least one degree, with 70 districts projected to experience a similar annual maximum temperature change.
“The highest change is expected in Leh at 1.6 degree Celsius for both summer and annual maximum temperatures. The winter minimum temperature is projected to change by 1.5 degree Celsius or more for 139 districts, while 611 districts will see a 1 degree Celsius or more temperature change,” the report states
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