Nearly every country’s population will be shrinking by 2100, study warns

Sub-Saharan Africa to account for one in every two children born in 2100, Lancet study says.

Fertility rates in nearly every country will be too low to sustain their populations by the end of this century, a major study has warned.

By 2100, populations in 198 of 204 countries will be shrinking, with most births taking place in poor countries, the study published in the Lancet showed on Monday.

Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to account for one in every two children born in 2100, with only Somalia, Tonga, Niger, Chad, Samoa and Tajikistan able to sustain their populations, according to the study carried out by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.

“The implications are immense. These future trends in fertility rates and live births will completely reconfigure the global economy and the international balance of power and will necessitate reorganising societies,” said Natalia V Bhattacharjee, co-lead author and lead research scientist at the IHME.

“Global recognition of the challenges around migration and global aid networks are going to be all the more critical when there is fierce competition for migrants to sustain economic growth and as sub-Saharan Africa’s baby boom continues apace.”