Myanmar's economy fragile as fighting, inflation hit poor: World Bank expert

“Inequality is estimated to have worsened, with those already poor falling into deeper destitution," the World Bank said in its latest update.

Army-ruled Myanmar's economy remains fragile as civil strife, inflation and onerous policy decisions add to troubles facing farmers and businesses, reports by the World Bank and other experts said on July 21.

Conditions have improved since last year, right after the military ousted the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi, but the country “remains a long way short of a recovery," said Kim Alan Edwards, a senior World Bank economist. “The economy really remains fragile," he said.

Myanmar is one of several countries in Asia, also including Sri Lanka and Laos, whose economies are imperiled by soaring prices and weaker currencies. A military takeover in February 2021, on top of the pandemic, has reversed a decade of reforms and strong economic growth, leaving 40% of the population living in poverty.

“Inequality is estimated to have worsened, with those already poor falling into deeper destitution," the World Bank said in its latest update. Opinions differ over the state of the economy, partly because of a lack of access to up-to-date information following the military's seizure of power.

The World Bank is forecasting that the economy will have grown at a 3% annual pace in the fiscal year that ends in September, following an 18% contraction the previous year. Some private sector economists are less optimistic.

In a separate report, Fitch Solutions put growth in the current fiscal year at minus 5.5%, recovering to 2.5% next year. It said it did not expect the economy to recover to a pre-pandemic level for at least another six years.