Morgan Stanley Cuts India's GDP Forecast To 7.9% For 2022-23

Morgan Stanley has cut India's growth forecast by 50 basis points to 7.9 per cent for 2022-23. It has raised retail inflation projection to 6 per cent

Higher oil prices due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, tighter financial conditions and trade will impact India's GDP in the forthcoming financial year of 2022-23, Morgan Stanley has said, while cutting the growth forecast by 50 basis points to 7.9 per cent.

Further, it has raised retail inflation projection to 6 per cent and expects current account deficit to widen to 3 per cent of GDP.

"Even as we expect the cyclical recovery trend to continue, we expect it to be softer than we previously projected," it said in a report, adding that "we believe that the ongoing geopolitical tensions exacerbate external risks and impart a stagflationary impulse to the economy".

India is affected through three key channels - higher prices for oil and other commodities; trade, and tighter financial conditions, influencing business/investment sentiment.