Monsoon can be forecast much in advance, says study

Scientists find two of four existing models show significant prediction skills for up to 10 years

A new study from the University of Hyderabad (UoH) in collaboration with the University of Exeter (UK) claims to have found out decadal prediction skills for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) to enable monsoon forecast for the next 5-10 years in advance.

Scientists analysed retrospective decadal forecasts, with initial conditions from 1960 to 2011 from existing four models and found that two models — MIROC5 from Japan, and CanCM4 from Canada — show significant prediction skills for up to 10 years, with strongest leads up to two years.

Interestingly, the predictability of IOD comes from the subsurface ocean signals in the Southern Ocean. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation events, which occur in the tropical pacific, are also well known as a major climate driver. IOD affects the global climate with a positive phase characterised by above normal sea surface temperature in the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean, and below normal temperatures in the western equatorial Indian Ocean.