Liberal strongholds under threat, ballot and leadership support slipping: Nanos tracking

The federal Conservatives have widened their lead over other parties when it comes to ballot support and leadership, with the minority Liberals now threatened in areas that were strongholds for them in the previous election, according to the latest Nanos Research tracking.

The federal opposition Conservatives have widened their lead over other parties when it comes to ballot support and leadership, with the minority Liberals now threatened in areas that were strongholds for them in the previous election, according to the latest Nanos Research tracking.

The latest federal ballot tracking -- in which those surveyed are asked whether they'd consider voting for each of the federal parties -- shows Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives leading at 35.2 per cent, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberals at 27.7 per cent – more than seven percentage points behind. The two parties were statistically tied a few months ago, each hovering around 33 per cent on Feb. 10. But since then, the Liberals have been on a negative trajectory. Jagmeet Singh's NDP, meanwhile, is sitting in third at 21.7 per cent.

Nik Nanos, CTV News' pollster and chair of Nanos Research, says the drop in Liberal support is not being driven by a bump in Conservative numbers, which have not risen significantly since February.

"But where the change is, is in the Liberal numbers. They're down," said Nanos on the latest episode of CTV News Trend Line. "Whenever the Liberal numbers have anything with a two in front of it, it's not good for (them)."

And when the NDP's ballot numbers get into 20s, it creates a "perfect scenario for the Conservatives" because it results in the splitting of the progressive vote, said Nanos.

Poilievre, meanwhile, also holds the advantage when it comes to the question of who Canadians prefer to be prime minister. The Conservative leader is at 28.3 per cent, followed by Trudeau at 23.9 per cent.