Ismail Haniyeh assassination: How will Iran respond?

Haniyeh’s assassination will have repercussions for Iran, the Gaza ceasefire talks and prospects of regional war.

Tehran, Iran – Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh has been assassinated in Iran’s capital in an attack that the group blamed on Israel, raising tensions in a region that appears ever closer to the brink of all-out war.

The killing happened hours after Israel carried out another attack in Lebanon, targeting a senior Hezbollah commander. Hamas and Hezbollah are both part of the Iran-led ‘axis of resistance’, a loose grouping of outfits spanning the region that are united in their opposition to Israel’s occupation of Gaza and the West Bank and that have been locked in exchanges of missile fire with Israel during the current Gaza war since October 7.

Yet Wednesday’s announcement of Haniyeh’s assassination marks a serious escalation not only in the war on Gaza, but also in the taut relationship between Israel and Iran. Israel, which has not formally claimed responsibility for the Hamas leader’s killing, has never attacked Iranian soil using projectiles launched from outside, despite a history of targeted assassinations and sabotage in Iran. Israeli media has reported that the missile that struck Haniyeh’s residence was launched from outside Iran — though Iran has neither confirmed nor denied the assertion.

Iran, like Hamas, has blamed Israel. Iran’s top leadership promised “harsh revenge” against Israel. Here’s a look at what happened, what it means for Iran, and how the country might respond.

The Palestinian leader was killed when the building he was staying in was struck by an “airborne projectile”, according to Iranian state media.