Is America at risk of a bond market meltdown? This watchdog thinks so

The United States risks a bond market crisis of the kind that engulfed the United Kingdom 18 months ago, sending yields soaring and sparking a run on the pound, according to Congress’s independent fiscal watchdog.

The United States risks a bond market crisis of the kind that engulfed the United Kingdom 18 months ago, sending yields soaring and sparking a run on the pound, according to Congress’s independent fiscal watchdog. The stark warning from the Congressional Budget Office comes as US government debt continues to break records, fuelling concerns about the burden that places on the economy and taking a toll on America’s credit rating. In an interview with the Financial Times, CBO director Phillip Swagel said US government debt — which the Treasury Department puts at nearly $35 trillion — is on an “unprecedented” trajectory. “The danger, of course, is what the UK faced with former Prime Minister (Liz) Truss, where policymakers tried to take an action, and then there’s a market reaction to that action,” he told the newspaper, referring to the investor backlash against plans for unfunded tax cuts that forced Truss to resign after just 45 days in office. The US was “not there yet,” Swagel said. But as higher interest rates raise the cost of paying its creditors, on track to reach $1 trillion per year in 2026, bond markets could “snap back,” Swagel added. CNN has contacted the CBO for comment. Britain’s bond market rout in September 2022 offered a cautionary tale of what can go wrong when investors reject a government’s plan to borrow more.