Iran walks a tightrope between diplomacy and deterrence Premium

Iran navigates a precarious balance between diplomacy and military deterrence amid escalating U.S. tensions and stalled negotiations.

The Iranians “not yet willing to actually acknowledge and work through the President’s demands”, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance said in an interview last week. On Sunday (February 22, 2026), Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump’s special envoy for West Asia and his chief negotiator with Iran, said the President was “curious” on why Iran had not capitulated under American pressure. Mr. Trump is wondering “why, under this pressure, with the amount of sea power and naval power over there, why haven’t they come to us and said, ‘we profess we don’t want a weapon, so here’s what we’re prepared to do?’” said Mr. Witkoff.

These remarks underscore growing frustration within the Trump administration over its inability to extract significant concessions from Tehran, despite substantial U.S. military build-up near Iran’s shores, including the deployment of two aircraft carrier strike groups.

The U.S. and Iran have held two rounds of talks since tensions escalated in January, but no breakthrough has been achieved. Oman, which is mediating indirect negotiations between the two sides, has confirmed that a third round will take place in Geneva on February 26.

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Mr. Trump has repeatedly warned that he could resort to force if Iran fails to reach a deal. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi have said Iran is for a “fair and equitable” agreement on its nuclear programme, but have rejected Washington’s coercive tactics. The U.S. has sent mixed signals about its objectives. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said earlier this month that the U.S. wanted discussions to cover not just Iran’s nuclear programme, but also its missile programme, its support for non-state actors in West Asia and its “treatment” of its own people. According to Mr. Witkoff, the President has given him and Jared Kushner, Mr. Trump’s son-in-law who is also part of the negotiating team, a clear direction that Iran should stop enrichment and agree to transfer its stockpile of highly enriched uranium out of the country.

The Iranians have so far, at least publicly, resisted both sets of demands. They say they are ready to talk about the nuclear programme, but only about the nuclear programme. Even on the nuclear programme, Iran says it would not give up its “right” to peaceful enrichment, and top officials, including Ali Larijani, have resisted calls for transferring its enriched uranium stockpile.