Iran at a political crossroads Premium

While there could be small steps towards change, especially where women are concerned, the core of the Iranian order is likely to endure

Iran has been rocked by agitations since the killing of Mahsa Amini, 22, who was in detention of the morality police enforcing strict hijab norms, in September. These demonstrations have been led by women chanting “Woman, Life, Freedom” and mocking their clerical leaders by publicly burning their hijab and cutting off their hair. They now include participants from all classes and ethnic backgrounds, including workers, business people, sportspersons and celebrities.

Security forces have responded harshly: by early December, nearly 500 persons had been killed. About 20,000 people have been detained, several have been given death sentences, and two people have already been executed. On December 14, the United Nations Economic and Social Council voted to expel Iran from the UN Commission on the Status of Women.

The Iran government has defended itself by describing the agitators as terrorists who are using weapons provided by foreign sources. Arms caches have been discovered in the Sistan-Baluchestan province and “terrorist” groups have been apprehended with firearms in other provinces. Some demonstrators have burned official vehicles and attacked security personnel in response to police brutality.

Iran has a long history of public protests. In 2009, there were agitations against the manipulation of results in the presidential elections. In 2017-18, a parlous economic situation brought about 50,000 people on to the streets while in 2019, over 2,00,000 demonstrators had agitated in over a hundred cities.

The ongoing agitations are significant because they are led by women protesting about the disabilities inflicted upon them as part of the Islamic regime’s moral code. But now there is anger not just about the hijab, but about the economic situation and the abridgement of personal rights. Placards carry the slogan, “Death to Khamenei”, Iran’s supreme leader and the principal guardian of the Islamic revolution.

The root cause remains the economic situation. As a result of crippling sanctions, millions of middle-class Iranians have dropped down the economic scale. Around 36% were living in absolute poverty in 2019. Sanctions have also reduced the national growth rate from 12.5% in 2016 to a paltry 2% at present. Again, with sanctions denying Iran the right to sell its oil abroad, in 2021-22, the petroleum sector contributed just 8% to the economy, crushing the people with inflation and unemployment.

The government appears to be bewildered by the persistence of the agitations despite the harsh measures of the security forces. This has led to some efforts at ameliorating the situation with palliatives. On December 4, the country’s chief prosecutor announced that the morality police had been “abolished”, but some hardliners, fearing this concession would be seen as a sign of weakness, denied the news. There have also been reports of the government’s outreach to “reformists”, represented by former president Mohammad Khatami. But hardliners have denied that any such dialogue has occurred, while Mr. Khatami’s associates have said that his suggestions for reform have been rejected by the government.