IPCC work on seventh climate assessment threatened by shorter timelines | Explained Premium

The member countries of the UN FCCC have asked the IPCC Bureau, which prepares various climate assessment reports, to publish the findings of its seventh assessment cycle (AR7) in time for the next global stocktake in 2028, potentially compromising the reports’ utility and quality.

Established in 1988, the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been bringing out climate change assessment reports on a periodic basis. So far, it has produced six assessment reports, three special reports, as well as methodology reports that provide guidelines for estimating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removal.

Three reports from the sixth assessment cycle (AR6) of the IPCC were published during 2021-2022, and the synthesis report came out in early 2023. These reports – prepared by scientists from the 195 countries that are part of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) – delve into the physical science; the consequences, adaptation, and vulnerability; and the climate mitigation aspects of climate change. 

Over the years, the IPCC reports have substantiated the fact that the world is much warmer now and that humans have played a crucial role in this warming.

The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) clearly warned that the time to limit the rise of the world’s average surface temperature to 1.5 degrees C from the pre-industrial era – as agreed to in the Paris Agreement – is running out and that we are close to breaching adaptation limits, particularly in developing countries.

The AR6 also suggested some options and strategies to slow warming (by cutting down emissions through mitigation), and to adapt and build resilience in natural systems (such as forests and wetlands), in human-made systems (farmland), and in communities that depend on these climate-sensitive systems.

After the publication of the AR6 synthesis report, the IPCC initiated its seventh cycle (AR7) by nominating and electing an IPCC Bureau, which represents the developed and developing countries and ensures gender balance (women need to make 40% of the Bureau).

In January 2024, members of the Bureau met for the first time in Turkey to discuss budgeting issues, timelines for publication of reports, types of reports, and essentially the work programme. They also discussed the vision for AR7, which is centred around policy relevance, inclusivity, and collaboration with similar efforts for biodiversity – such as the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services.