In Russia's Ukraine plans, how much does the mud matter?

The Russian expression “tanks don’t fear mud” is common enough that it’s the title of a short-lived television Russian series and can be found stenciled on car windows

MOSCOW -- The Russian expression “tanks don’t fear mud” is common enough that it’s been the title of a short-lived Russian television series and can be found stenciled on car windows.

And it’s yet another reason why any Russian decision to invade Ukraine is likely to depend very little upon fears that a spring thaw will hinder tanks from crossing boggy ground. Russia’s military has, in addition to tanks and other armored vehicles that are well equipped for mud, a range of fighter jets and missiles that are the hallmarks of any modern military.

U.S. President Joe Biden has said that Russia is essentially in position for an invasion of Ukraine “assuming that the ground is frozen above Kyiv,” the Ukrainian capital that is only 75 kilometers (47 miles) from the border of Belarus, a key Russian ally. It’s not the first time an American official has invoked Russia’s need for frozen ground to stage an invasion.

But analysts trying to figure out how Russia could invade say any assault would start with air and missile strikes, likely targeting Ukrainian military sites.