IMD forecasts grim April with heat set to intensify in Kerala

IMD forecasts high summer heat in Kerala with deficient summer rain, transitioning from El Niño to La Niña.

Although parts of Kerala are witnessing cloudy afternoons as a prelude to the customary thundershowers in the month of April, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts that summer heat is set to remain high across the State during the month.

As per the IMD projections, temperatures will go up further in April in the State and summer rain will continue to be deficient.

Speaking to The Hindu, K. Santhosh, Director, IMD, Thiruvananthapuram, said the State was likely to see more thundershowers in April compared to March, which saw around 68% drop in summer rain. The maximum day temperature would also rule high in the State in April, except in some pockets.  “It is a transition period from El Niño, which is characterised by above-average sea-surface temperatures that periodically develop across the east-central equatorial Pacific, to La Niña.” 

“La Niña is just the opposite of El Niño and typically brings copious rains during the monsoon season, apart from bringing cooler temperatures across the country. Although El Niño is in a weakening phase, the lingering effect of the weather phenomenon in the atmosphere drives the temperature up, especially against the backdrop of the deficient summer showers,” said Mr. Santhosh.

Further, from the long-term perspective, there was a slight increase – close to 0.5°C — in the maximum and minimum temperatures of Kerala. However, due to the maritime effect of Kerala and the towering presence of the Western Ghats, a heat wave was unlikely in the State, he added.

On April 27, 2016 Palakkad had recorded 41.9°C, the highest-ever temperature recorded in April in the State. It was also an El Niño year. Of the 22 times the mercury officially soared beyond 40°C in Kerala from 1901 to 2023, 19 occurred in March, according to statistics available with the IMD.