How many medals will Canada win at the Winter Olympics?

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The pandemic is a destroyer of plans. Nearly two years into this thing, who would have thought so many people in this country would once again be unable to send their kids to school, or play in a rec hockey league, or leave the country without jumping through a million hoops, or even step outside their homes after 10 p.m. It's tough to look to the future when we're all just trying to get through the day.

Add the 2022 Winter Olympics to the list of things that won't turn out the way we'd hoped. Organizers insist the Games will not be postponed, but NHL players have already bailed and it's likely that other stars will be sidelined by positive tests as the highly transmissible Omicron variant tears through the world. Some might not even make it to China. Athletes have to produce at least two negative tests before getting on the plane, plus another one at the Beijing airport. The rules are even stricter for anyone who gets COVID-19 between now and then.

Clearly, only a fool would try to predict the medal winners for what could be the most unpredictable Olympics ever. But that's never stopped us before. To mark one month to the Beijing Winter Games, which officially open on Feb. 4, I went over the latest round of medal projections by the data company Nielsen Gracenote. Here are the most interesting takeaways from what their model spit out, along with some analysis on whether the predictions will come true or not:

Gracenote says: Canada will win 23 medals

That's tied with the United States for fourth place in the projected standings, behind Norway (45), the Russian team (31) and Germany (25). But it would be Canada's lowest total since tallying 17 in 2002 in Salt Lake City. It's also six fewer medals than the Canadian Winter Olympic record of 29 set in 2018 in South Korea.

So what gives? Mostly, the Gracenote model sees Canada falling off the table in figure skating (from four medals in 2018 to zero) and luge (from two to zero). Those losses are somewhat offset by a big increase in long-track speed skating medals (from two in 2018 to six).

It's hard to argue against the model on any of those three sports. The Canadian figure skating program is in rebuilding mode after the post-2018 retirements of several stars, while no Canadian luger is currently ranked in the top 10. On the bright side, Canada's long track speed skaters are tearing it up this season. Laurent Dubreuil heads into the Olympics ranked No. 1 in the world in the men's 500 metres after reaching the podium in all eight World Cup races so far this season, while the women's pursuit team is also No. 1 after winning gold in all three of theirs. Ivanie Blondin leads the women's mass start standings, while Isabelle Weidemann tops the women's long distances category. Ted-Jan Bloemen, who won Olympic gold and silver in the two longest men's races in 2018, remains a solid contender. The projections also call for four medals by Canadian short track speed skaters — just one less than their haul from 2018.

The model also sees Canada taking six medals in freestyle skiing: a repeat gold for moguls GOAT Mikaël Kingsbury, three silver or bronze in the halfpipe and another two in ski cross. Plus, three more in snowboarding — sort of a sister sport to freestyle skiing. So if you're looking to catch a Canadian medal performance this February, your best bet is to focus on the freestyle skiing and snowboarding hills and the long- and short-track speed skating ovals. According to the model, 19 of Canada's 23 medals will come from those sports.

Gracenote says: Canada will win seven gold medals

Three of them are in long track: Dubreuil in the men's 500m, Blondin in the mass start, and the women's team pursuit. As mentioned, the model likes Kingsbury to go back-to-back in men's moguls, plus snowboarder Max Parrot to win the men's big air and both hockey teams to capture gold.

One caveat for the hockey: these projections came out just before NHL players withdrew. Canada's replacement roster will still be capable of capturing gold (it took bronze in 2018), but defending champion Russia is now the betting favourite to win the men's tournament.

If Canada does end up with seven gold, that would be four fewer than in 2018 and the country's lowest haul since it captured seven in 2006.

Gracenote says: Canada will fail to win a medal in curling