How Iran could retaliate after U.S. strikes on its nuclear program

Iranian officials had warned the U.S. to stay out, saying it would have dire consequences for the entire region.

Iran has spent decades building multi-tiered military capabilities at home and across the region that were at least partly aimed at deterring the United States from attacking it. By entering Israel’s war, the U.S. may have removed the last rationale for holding them in reserve.

That could mean a wave of attacks on U.S. forces in the Middle East, an attempt to close a key bottleneck for global oil supplies or a dash to develop a nuclear weapon with what remains of Iran’s disputed program after American strikes on three key sites.

A decision to retaliate against the U.S. and its regional allies would give Iran a far larger target bank and one that is much closer than Israel, allowing it to potentially use its missiles and drones to greater effect. The U.S. and Israel have far superior capabilities, but those haven’t always proven decisive in America’s recent history of military interventions in the region.

Ever since Israel started the war with a surprise bombardment of Iran’s military and nuclear sites on June 13, Iranian officials from the supreme leader on down have warned the U.S. to stay out, saying it would have dire consequences for the entire region.

It should soon be clear whether those were empty threats or a grim forecast.

Here’s a look at what Iran’s next move might be.

The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf, through which some 20 per cent of all oil traded globally passes, and at its narrowest point it is just 33 kilometres wide. Any disruption there could send oil prices soaring worldwide and hit American pocketbooks.

Iran boasts a fleet of fast-attack boats and thousands of naval mines that could potentially make the strait impassable, at least for a time. It could also fire missiles from its long Persian Gulf shore, as its allies, Yemen’s Houthi rebels, have done in the Red Sea.