How affordability could scare off the immigrants Canada wants to retain

When Nicaraguan-born Franco Rayo moved to New Brunswick in 2017 as an international student, he was open to the idea of making Canada home.

Rayo received his master in business administration from the University of New Brunswick in 2018 and got a job in auditing that paid $45,000 annually. Holding two degrees from the U.S. and Canada, Rayo says finding work was difficult and the compensation he was being offered was disappointing.

"My issue was they were offering me entry-level jobs," he said. "I don't know if it's because I'm from another country."

With a wife and young son, Rayo says he was dipping into his savings to sustain the lifestyle he wanted for his family. 

Their situation eventually led Franco, 33, and his wife Natalie Rayo, 29, to make a drastic change to their lives. About a year into the pandemic, the family of three packed their bags and headed for Nicaragua. 

While the rising cost of living — with inflation soaring to 6.7 per cent — is affecting all Canadians, the reality is that new immigrants still earn less than the general population.

Now, a recent survey conducted by Leger in partnership with the Institute for Canadian Citizenship is suggesting that squeeze may get in the way of retaining new immigrants.

"Canada tells itself a story about being this paradise for newcomers, and we wanted to see how true that was," said Daniel Bernhard, CEO of the Institute for Canadian Citizenship (ICC). 

The federal government doesn't track migrant retention, but according to Statistics Canada, 50 per cent of international students had no tax records one year after graduation, suggesting they've left the country. 

In the ICC survey, 23 per cent of new Canadians with a university education responded that they were planning to leave the country in the next two years. 

For new Canadians under the age of 35, that number was 30 per cent. However, it's not clear how this compares to intentions in previous years.

The survey was conducted between Feb. 24 and 28 with 2013 respondents using an online panel. Although an accurate margin of error cannot be calculated, for comparison, a probability sample of 2000 respondents would have a margin of error of ±2.5%, 19 times out of 20.

Rayo is now settled in Managua with his family and runs his own business, though he's maintained his permanent resident status in Canada. His wife Natalie, who grew up in New Brunswick, says they enjoy a better quality of life than they did in Moncton, feeling less financially pinched. 

"I did not expect to move to Nicaragua, but when it came down to it for our future, my husband and I and my son, that was the best option for us," she said.