Housing market 2024: What to expect with rate cuts in the forecast

The Bank of Canada's policy rate could act as a barometer for the housing market in 2024, with rate cuts potentially bringing home buyers and sellers off the sidelines.

After nearly two years of hikes to the Bank of Canada’s benchmark interest rate, some forecasters are expecting the housing market correction will come to an end in 2024.

But when that bottom hits, and how fiercely home sales and prices rebound, is a question dogging some Canadians who continue to grip the sidelines of the market.

The central bank’s policy rate could act as a barometer for the Canadian housing market in 2024, with forecasts for interest rate cuts potentially lifting some of the pressure off of would-be buyers next year.

Despite three consecutive holds from the Bank of Canada in its latest decisions, Ipsos polling conducted exclusively for Global News shows that many Canadians are feeling trapped by the rapid run-up in interest rates over the past two years.

Of the more than 1,000 Canadian adults surveyed by Ipsos from Dec. 8-11, some 73 per cent said high rates are keeping them on the outskirts of the housing market, and they won’t buy or sell as a result.

Elevated interest rates are particularly sidelining millennials (85 per cent), as well as those in British Columbia (76 per cent) and Quebec (86 per cent), according to Ipsos.

Ipsos Global CEO Darrell Bricker tells Global News that while higher borrowing costs might be a barrier for many getting into the housing market next year, elevated interest rates could give some sellers a push if they’re unable to handle increased mortgage payments at renewal.

“I think the number one issue that we’re going to have to look at in terms of housing going forward is whether or not people who currently have mortgages are able to afford them,” he says.